Enough Searching for Quick Fixes; Successful Investing is About Patience and Discipline
Wednesday, August 31, 2011 at 10:54PM If there is one thing I am guilty of, it's being impatient. I want to jump on everything the second I know about it and I always warn the people I do business with or my employees: If you have an idea, don't come to me and say "Hey, I have an idea, but more info will come when I get it fleshed out." Come to me when it's a thought out idea ready to get worked on. I am Captain Impatient.
Except for the investment world, I believe. Being successful in investments is all about patience and discipline. This took years for me to learn, but this is why our deals tend to be better than most and why we know we will be around a long time getting above average returns.
What worries me is how I see everyone talking about how we need a quick end to our problems. Guys! Our financial world nearly collapsed (hours away from it) a mere three years ago. Decades of excess with barely any pullback was coming to a halt faster than anyone could have ever imagined, and what I hear now is: Short term, things aren't looking good, but by 2012, it should be better. 2012 IS SHORT TERM!!!
When I hear people worry about the unemployment rate not being 6% until 2016 being a bad thing, I laugh. We had a lot of excess in the economy and it's time for us to get back to the fundamentals of saving and investing in the future, which we all forgot about…and this is coming from a guy who graduated high school in 1999!
All I knew about was excessive stock markets and the 2000s where we saw real estate values explode… Which brings me to real estate…if you think for one second that we are close to getting out of this mess, you are 100% wrong. Nationwide, we are in a real estate mess. We still have so much inventory and so many home owners over their heads and behind in their mortgages that we still have a lot of foreclosures to come, which is only extra inventory not even factored into today's real estate prices. This WILL TAKE TIME. And it should take time.
Nothing this ridiculous should be corrected quickly because if it does, everyone will forget it happened and go right back to the same damaging behavior that caused this mess in the first place. Yes, I know there are a lot of people out there who are retiring soon and need large stock accounts, but they shouldn't be heavy in stocks anyhow. The years of the market going up 15% per year are not going to be back for a long time.
We need to run out this secular bear market for a while and I truly believe we will test the 2009 lows again. We ran up too quickly that I heard a few people say, back in late 2010 "I like my money in stocks. They've done well this past year." This was less than 18 months after hearing people say "oh my gosh, the stock market will keep going down forever." That kind of bipolar reaction is not fixed short term. That is only fixed with long term ups and downs in the market.
So whatever situation we are in either now or in the future, the more extreme the rise, the harder the fall and the longer the fall SHOULD BE so that we learn our lessons, hopefully, to not repeat. Now, we will always have bubbles, but let's learn our lessons for a bit of time and get back to normalcy before we find something new to create a bubble in…I can't wait to see the next "This can't miss" investment that we will spend years unwinding.


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